將要進入熊市了嗎?

以下這個圖提供了我們不同於目前市場氛圍的樂觀看法，翻譯如下：

"在過去的近100年來，從來沒有出現過一個新的長期牛市在僅僅兩年出生後就翻身進入熊市，而這就是目前這個嬰兒牛市的實際年齡。

Over the past nearly 100 years, there has never been a new secular bull market that rolled over into a bear market after just two years of being born, as is the current age of this baby bull market.

過去有約10~20%的修正過程並創造了過去的恐怖惡夢。

There are 10-20 percent corrections along the way that serve to create nightmares of past horrors.

而這些噩夢，不可避免地會造成一致看空的情緒，無論是技術面或基本面，市場參與者的心理自然都會變得一致，因為大家都會沿著最小阻力的路徑會聚，擔憂著過去心理的創傷。

With these nightmares will inevitably come unanimously bearish sentiment be it technical or fundamental as the mental faculties of market participants become singular in nature, converging along the path of least resistance i.e. past mental trauma.

過去幾年的盤整已經給投資人許多的壓力，當然，過去無論是基本面、營利、總體經濟或是貨幣政策等，都是造成投資人擔心的主要因素，但這就是市場在於此刻的意圖，而且它正在出色得履行這個意向。

What we have over the past year is a standard consolidation that is causing stress to investors. Of course the chars will all look bearish. Of course the fundamental picture, whether it be earnings, macro or monetary policy will serve to create fear. That is the intentions of the market at this juncture. And it is fulfilling that intention brilliantly.

在未來的幾個月可能還會處於混亂之中，但是底部不會破底，一個新的熊市並不會誕生，接下來的市場是會持續向上，不是跌。

There may be several more months of mayhem. However, the bottom will not fall out. A new bear market is not on the horizon. The next major move in the market is up not down."

所以未來到底是會往上?還是會往下?做為價值投資者，必須要有足夠的智慧與勇氣，我們不可去猜測未來的走勢，更不可被目前市場的氛圍給影響，因為未來事不可知。我們能做的只是謹守我們的買股原則與資金水位控管原則：

1. 便宜價買進好公司並長期持有。

2. 市場高時，持股比例低些，市場低時，持股比例高些。

洪盛譽 筆